If the world wants to avoid the terrors of climate change, it will need to ease out of lockdown in a way that puts sustainability first.
As nations around the world enacted lockdowns and quarantines to tackle Coronavirus, global CO2 emissions dropped.
Cars and congestion disappeared in cities. Commercial flights came to a standstill. Industrial activity was severely cut back. This has contributed to a sudden drop in the total CO2 produced by human activity. In London, pollution levels have fallen to their lowest level since records began, giving clear views of the city for the first time in years.
According a paper published in May – compared to the 2019 daily average – daily global CO2 emissions were down by 17% in April. The research, published in Nature, describes the drop as ‘extreme and probably unseen before’. Average daily emissions have been increasing since the early 20th century. The drop seen in April puts emissions back to around 2006-level.
Whilst emissions are dropping, the total amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is still increasing; it is at the highest level in 2 million years. In May, the Scripps CO2 program reported that average CO2 levels were at 417.16ppm. This shows an increase compared to May last year when they were at 414.83ppm.
So, whilst the drop in CO2 emissions is a positive shift, we are still far from solving the greater problem. Current projections expect the world to warm up by approximately 3°C, in contrast, the Paris Climate Agreement’s target is to limit the increase to 1.5°C. If we are going to manage the calamitous damage brought upon by global warming, our species needs to make some swift changes.
The question being asked is: is there a way we can solidify and continue these downward trends in emissions to tackle global warming?
Inevitably, when lockdown’s ease across the world, emissions will bounce back to some extent. Cars will return to roads and commercial flights will resume. This is only natural, continuing the restrictions on cars and planes would be unfeasible for many governments.
However, as we leave lockdown, it is possible we could do so in a way that puts the environment first. World economies are poised to severely retract in the coming months as the drops in productivity come to enact their reckoning. To tackle this, trade organisations and national governments are planning economic response packages to help ‘restart’ the world economy. There is increasing pressure to put climate sustainability at the heart of any of these schemes.
Seventeen EU nations have signed a letter to put the ‘European Green Deal’ at the centre of any economic recovery plan. This would be one where green initiatives like renewable energy and the recovery of biodiversity are given priority investment to help rebuild the economy in a different way.
Similarly, many individual countries have their own plans to jump start their economies in a way that puts the environment first. The UK government has faced increased pressure from business leaders and opposition parties to set out a green recovery plan in recent months.
In smaller ways, countries leaving lockdown are sponsoring green campaigns. The Italian city, Milan, is using Coronavirus as an opportunity to roll out a scheme that prioritises roads for walking and cycling instead of cars. The mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, has pushed for restrictions on certain major roads to only allow pedestrians when the city reopens. These small but significant changes go to show how the Coronavirus crisis could help lead the world down a greener path.
However, some countries are taking the opposite approach. In the past, China has resorted to using dirty energy like coal to help their economy when it’s struggling, doing so after both the SARS outbreak and the 2008 financial crash. Recent government announcements by China seem to indicate they are doing the same this time by pushing ahead with a swathe of new carbon-intensive projects in an attempt to bolster the economy after its recent battering.
The USA also appears to be resisting a green recovery. President Trump’s administration has vocally opposed most climate-friendly policies over the last 3 years, stripping away most reforms put in place by the Obama administration. Democrats have spoken out recently and urged Washington to introduce bold infrastructure packages that put climate awareness at the centre of them. Republican Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell, was quick to quash any hope of this, saying that “Democrats won’t let us fund hospitals or save small businesses until they get to dust off the Green New Deal”. These regressive attitudes are unlikely to change under the Trump administration.
Some countries are steaming ahead with unprecedented green investment, whilst others rely on older, environmentally damaging investments to save their economies. Eventually, they will have to act though. Climate change is not going away and if we want any chance of surviving, a complete economic overhaul will be needed. There may be some hope though. For years, people said how governments would not sacrifice their economies for a crisis, yet that is exactly what they did when Coronavirus struck. It’s not unfathomable to think that they might do the same for climate change over the coming years.